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Many maize growers were surprised to learn last month that Coca-Cola will be launching a new drink produced with cane sugar rather than high-fructose corn syrup, particularly in Iowa, the state that produces the most corn in the nation.
According to its CEO, Coca-Cola intends to launch a new product using cane sugar from the United States rather than substituting its beverages with cane sugar.
In response to consumer demand for unique experiences, we intend to add U.S. cane sugar to our Trademark Coca-Cola product line this fall in the United States as part of our continuous innovation drive, James Quincy stated during a quarterly results call on July 22.
A week before to the announcement, the White House released a statement on X, formerly Twitter, claiming that President Donald Trump had been in discussions with the beverage industry regarding the use of cane sugar in its beverages.
They will make a really wise move with this. You’ll see. “It’s simply superior!” the statement read.
A significant amount of U.S. cane sugar is spoken for, thus it would be necessary to import foreign cane sugar to meet demand, according to reporting from The Wall Street Journal.
Many farmers in the United States don’t like that.
It’s really unfortunate that we’re turning to importing goods instead of using those produced in the United States at a time when agriculture needs assistance.Stu Swanson, president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, stated.
Impact on farmers
According to the Associated Press, cane sugar costs more per pound than high fructose corn syrup, which is priced at $0.61 and $0.49, respectively. Cost increases for customers could be the outcome of rising Coca-Cola production costs.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the country’s yearly production of 9 million tons of cane and beet sugar generated $2.258 billion in total cash receipts for the 2019–20 crop year.
Swanson claimed that since cane sugar is just as nutritious as high fructose corn syrup, the movement to switch from the former to the latter is particularly perplexing. According to him, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found a negative association between the consumption of corn syrup and the rising rates of childhood obesity.
Swanson stated that if Coca-Cola were to completely switch from corn syrup to cane sugar, which is currently merely speculative, Iowa maize farmers might lose between $0.15 and $0.34 per bushel, which could amount to a possible loss of $925 million in Iowa and $5 billion nationwide.
According to Swanson, the 2026 corn carryout, or the quantity of grain left over after demand is satisfied, is 1.67 billion bushels as of mid-July, down from the estimated more than two billion bushels in January.
Swanson claimed that a decline in interest in carryout maize and a rise in demand for imported sugar would eventually push farmers farther into a negative margin, regardless of the extent of the carryout.
We need to find a place to house this enormous carryout, but we’re importing sugar, which will affect our ability to offload it, he said.
Swanson added that when demand changes, farmers nearer wetmills, such as Cargill or ADM, who create goods like corn syrup and other maize derivatives and byproducts, would be negatively impacted.
The demand for 2025 corn will be allocated throughout the 2025–26 marketing year, which runs from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026.
Due to the fact that the 2018 Farm Bill will expire at the end of 2025, importation becomes challenging. In order to mediate sugar imports, tariff rate quotas were expressly implemented in the 2018 Farm Bill. In essence, a higher duty rate applies to imports that exceed the quota.
According to Southern Ag Today, the United States imported 3.42 million tons of sugar in its raw form in fiscal year 2024, totaling $2.65 billion.
Market responses
Although Coca-Cola has stated that it merely intends to introduce a new product line, these statistics presume a complete shift away from corn syrup and toward cane sugar.
The argument between corn syrup and cane sugar, according to Doug Greeson, 58, a farm operator who grows corn near Packwood, two hours south of Cedar Rapids, is an example of the careful balancing act that farmers have performed and will continue to perform.
He claimed that talking about shifts in the demand for corn could be more detrimental than beneficial.
According to Greeson, losing bushels to cane sugar is never desirable, particularly when prices are low. On the market, bad news is most often a little worse than the truth.
According to Greeson, just around 3% of Iowa maize is used to make corn syrup, which is a little quantity, but considering other market factors, it would still have an impact over time. He claimed that corn syrup losses won’t help and that other stressors are to blame for the low pricing, which are less than $4 per bushel.
Commodity markets are heavily influenced by expectations, and prices can change based on which crops are used where and in what quantities. Greeson claimed that Trump’s indication that the United States will start selling ethanol to Asia had minimal effect on maize prices.
According to Greeson, this year’s crop will bring greater yields to Iowa farmers, but commodities prices will ultimately fall.
“Everyone wants to grow big bushels,” he continued, “but you won’t have big prices with it when you do that.”
Swanson is more concerned with the connections Iowa maize farmers have made with beverage corporations like Coca-Cola than he is with the delicate balance of prices.
He predicts a decline in the market for corn syrup, but more significantly, a decline in the connections that producers have with one another through the market.
According to him, corn producers have a strong relationship with beverage corporations like Coke and have been developing that corn syrup industry for a long time. The manufacturing of [these beverages] has demonstrated that corn sugar is a good product, and we have a product that has been successful for a number of years.
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